With Yao Ming out for this year, Houston plays a different brand of basketball. Half-court sets used the norm, and fast break opportunities were rare. If you’ve watched a few Rockets games this year, you’ve seen a team that is dedicated to running much more than in past seasons. In this year’s version of the Rick Adelman offense, ball movement is paramount. Tracy McGrady needs the ball in his hands to be effective, and having the ball stop in his hands will be more harmful than ever before. Conversely, without McGrady, the Rockets lack a high-volume scorer that can get to the rim regularly, which could result in frequent visits to the free-throw line. So what’s the fix?
Houston receives:
SG Kevin Martin ($10M)
SF/PF Andres Nocioni ($7.5M)
PF Kenny Thomas (8.5M)
Sacramento receives:
SG/SF Tracy McGrady ($23M)
SF/SG Trevor Ariza ($5.85M)
Why Sacramento Does It
Rookie guard Tyreke Evans is looking like the Rookie of the Year. As we watched the Kings let an overtime game slip away against the Lakers last Saturday, a friend commented to me about how Evans looks like a complete NBA player already. An offensive game with no glaring holes hasn’t been seen in a young guard since Brandon Roy (feel free to correct me). And like Roy, Evans is more effective off the ball. Neither Evans nor Martin can slide to small forward. Evans could slide to the point as he did early this season, but with the way he’s played while Martin has been out, Evans’ natural position has become more evident. With this young team already playing well thus far, they could stand to save a few bucks. Trading for McGrady, who is still popular amongst SOME people, could result in a temporary ticket sales boost in what is typically a rabid NBA fanbase. If McGrady works well with the team, they’ll be able to re-signing him to a cheaper deal. In the more likely scenario, McGrady will leave after this year and leave a surplus of cap space behind. Trevor Ariza is probably the more important piece here, as his ability to run the floor would pair well with Evans on the other wing. It would also allow Ariza to play at his natural SF spot, which would likely lead to an improved FG% and fewer turnovers. This deal would also get Sacramento off the hook for paying Nocioni, who never seems to leave the trading block. Nocioni’s deal lasts through at least the 2011-12 season, with a $7.5M team option in 2012-13. Kevin Martin’s deal increases from the $10M he’s owed this season and tops out at roughly $13M in the 2012-13 season. This would rid the Kings of their longest and most expensive contracts and give them additional immediate cap relief in McGrady.
Why Houston Does It
Even though the Rockets like Trevor Ariza, I think they still like Shane Battier more, even with his age and more limited offensive game. I think Ariza isn’t panning out quite as well as the Rockets had hoped. Ariza doesn’t look very good playing SG – he’s turning the ball over much more than last year (2.39/game, up from 1.06/game), his shooting is off-and-on (but mostly off), and watching him dribble can be used instead of ipecac to induce vomiting. Tracy McGrady is obviously unwanted in Houston, even to the point that people have speculated that even Yao Ming wanted him gone. At this point, if the Rockets could trade him for a box of three-stripe tube socks, some grape Gatorade powder mix, and a $10 gift certificate to Blimpie just to get him off the roster, they might consider it. As for the incoming pieces, Andres Nocioni is a decent offensive player who is a better defender than many people give him credit for. If anything, the Rockets could probably move him in a future deal along with one of their great value players, including Aaron Brooks ($1M this year, a total of $6M through 2011-12), Kyle Lowry ($2M this year, $3M qualifying offer next year), Luis Scola ($3.375M expiring), or super-sub Carl Landry ($3M this year and next). Kevin Martin is the type of player the Rockets would be willing to eat a lengthy contract to get, in addition to Nocioni’s. Martin would be the only true SG on the Rockets’ roster, and he is effective at getting to the free-throw line. Also, with all the ball-movement in Adelman’s offense, defenses won’t be able to focus primarily on him as has been the case during his time in Sacramento. Consequently, this could mean Martin takes less of a physical beating and plays more games than he has the past few seasons. Martin and Nocioni are tough players that would fit the Rockets’ current roster of gritty players. The main draw here is that Kevin Martin has the ability to put up 50 on any given night, and I’m not convinced that McGrady still can.
Other Iterations
There’s a good chance that Sacramento insists on getting a point guard in any deal with the Rockets. PG Beno Udrih is having a good season, but I’m not sure if Sacramento is convinced that he’s their future. I’m fairly certain that backup PG Sergio Rodriguez isn’t the answer for Paul Westphal. I think the Rockets would balk at the notion of sending Aaron Brooks and Ariza, but would be more willing to part with Lowry. There’s also a chance that the Rockets aren’t quite ready to give up on the Trevor Ariza experiment. That could mean that Battier could be substituted for Ariza, or maybe the Kings would want a big man. Behind C Spencer Hawes and PF Jason Thompson, the Kings have no real depth. I personally think Scola or Landry could start on that team, but it really depends on how highly the Kings think of Thompson. Perhaps C David Andersen ($2.3M this year, $2.5M next year, $2.7M team option in 2011-12) could be thrown into the original proposed deal to keep Houston from having to part with Scola or Landry. If the Kings forced their hand, I think Scola might be dealt before Landry. I personally don’t think the Rockets would part with either of them without getting a solid PF in return. Chuck Hayes is really a specialty player, and I’m sure that no other team will value him as much as the Rockets do, but you need more scoring from the backup PF spot than what he can provide. Unless the Kings would want some youngsters like PF Joey Dorsey or wing player Chase Budinger, I see Ariza as the most likely tradeable piece of the rotation. On the flip side, the Rockets could seek to get SG/SF Francisco Garcia instead of Andres Nocioni, or perhaps push for the inclusion of the expiring contract of the retired Shareef Abdur-Rahim ($6.6M) to keep them from having to send out too much talent.
So, this is just one possibility for a Tracy trade. It’s still going to be very difficult to get good value for McGrady, especially with the public knowledge that the Rockets don’t want him, but there are interested teams, no matter what some sources of the media says. It’s Morey’s job to identify them and get some players he can use.
Flagrant Fouls 