Trading Tracy at the Deadline

The NBA trade deadline is less than a week from now, and Tracy McGrady is still a member of the Houston Rockets. GM Daryl Morey is working on that, and has been in talks with teams around the league, hoping to improve the team. Because of the nature of trades, teams obviously want to get the most value that they can in a deal, whether that value is young talent, established veterans, or expiring contracts. As such, teams often won’t show their cards until the deadline. Daryl Morey likely believes that the best deal he can get for McGrady hasn’t been proposed yet, and he’s willing to wait.

With NBA All-Star Weekend kicking off tomorrow, GMs around the league will travel to Dallas and talk business. The best trade rumors often begin to surface over the weekend, and the fact that two promising trade possibilities are being reported as the weekend nears is a good sign. Adrian Wojnarowski’s reported (but incomplete) three-team deal that would bring in Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood seems like the best option for the Rockets as far as value and future financial flexibility, but it would add to the Rockets’ rotation problems. The other trade being floated is a deal with the 76ers that would involve Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert. Neither of these potential options are new revelations, and need some tweaking to make things jive, but let’s pretend that the Rockets would be able to choose.

On New Year’s Eve, some friends and I went to Toyota Center to see the Rockets pull out a good win against the Dallas Mavericks in Houston. As we watched, we discussed players that we’d (realistically) like to see play the two for Houston. I named Joe Johnson as a realistic best-case scenario for free agency this summer, but that’s still a longshot. Kevin Martin came up as well, but Sacramento continues to say that they won’t deal him, most recently telling the Rockets it’s not going down. To that, I still think the Rockets should ante up and include a rotation player like Trevor Ariza or Luis Scola, but let’s assume that’s not happening. Taking Andre Iguodala seemed possible, assuming that Dalembert comes with him. Caron Butler was mentioned, although he’s really more of a SF, because the Wizards may have been looking to start over. Now that Gilbert Arenas in a felon, the Wizards seem more motivated to shed some money and start fresh. So, what’s the better deal?

Both the Philly trade and the Washington trade would bring an athletic wing player and a solid center that could start for at least the rest of this season. With Iguodala, he’s younger and more athletic, and has excelled at distributing the ball when called upon (about 5.3 assists/game over the past four seasons), which is a valuable skill in Rick Adelman’s pass-heavy offense. The bad? Andre makes $12M this year, and will make $56M over the next four years (not to mention another year of Dalembert’s $12M deal expiring after next season). One could also argue that his upside isn’t really as great as people think, with his numbers remaining constant over the past four years with no large jump in production. Iguodala also isn’t a good outside shooter, which could be a problem with the Rockets, especially when Yao returns. Caron Butler has very similar numbers to Iggy and a similar skill set: he can pass, comes up with steals, can rebound, and also isn’t very good from three; Caron’s free-throw shooting is the only statistical advantage. Money is what makes the Caron Butler deal more attractive. Butler will make $10M next year, the last year of his deal, and Haywood’s deal expires after this season.

As an added bonus — well, for me anyway — is that the presence of Caron Butler could lead to another trade for Houston. Shane Battier is the current starter at the three for Houston, and Trevor Ariza, a natural small forward, is playing out of position at the two. Caron Butler is more capable at shooting guard than Ariza is, but he’s still a small forward as well. Perhaps trading for Butler will lead to the Rockets looking to move either Battier or Ariza. Battier makes more money and is older, but his value isn’t in the box score. Trevor Ariza cannot shoot. At all. Bricks galore. It’s not a shooting slump if it lasts all season, Trevor. He’s fighting Bucks rookie point guard Brandon Jennings for the worst FG% in the league for those with enough shots to be eligible, and has the fifth-worst three-point shooting percentage as well. But I digress…

The Rockets will have some options for what to do with Tracy, but they’ll have competition as well. Just as some teams are looking to shed money to get under the cap, others are trying to gear up for the stretch run. Specifically, the Southwest Division-leading Dallas Mavericks are in the market for a wing player as well, and will likely be in direct competition for any players the Rockets are trying to acquire. The Rockets have the pieces to make a big move at the deadline, but whether they choose to do so remains to be seen. Tracy and I sure hope they get something done.

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